Digital Connectivity, Economic Performance, and Entrepreneurial Activity in Zambia: A Multidimensional Analysis

Abstract

This study examines the dynamic relationship between digital connectivity, entrepreneurial activity, and economic performance in Zambia using an integrated analysis of World Bank time series data from 2006 to 2022. Using both panel data techniques and advanced time series econometrics in RStudio and Jamovi, the analysis examines key variables including GDP per capita, new firm density, mobile and broadband penetration, Internet adoption, and labor market dynamics. The methodological approach includes descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, moderation testing, and autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) modeling to explore the following findings: (1) a strong positive association (r = 0.794, p < 0.001) between mobile adoption and entrepreneurial activity, confirming the catalytic role of mobile technology in low-infrastructure contexts; (2) the absence of significant short-term GDP impacts from Internet penetration alone, highlighting critical gaps in institutional frameworks and skills development; and (3) diminishing marginal returns to mobile adoption in high-Internet environments. This study makes a dual contribution by advancing digital development theory through its moderation framework and providing actionable policy insights for resource-dependent economies. In particular, it highlights the need for balanced investments in mobile infrastructure, broadband expansion, digital literacy, and the development of entrepreneurial ecosystems. The findings challenge simplistic assumptions about digital transformation and reveal the complex, conditional nature of technology-led development.